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POPULATION AND THE FUTURE - CONFERENCE REPORT

Ali Abbas Qazilbash, Ali Ahmed Rind and Mohsin Babbar
abbas@sdpi.org ; alirind@sdpi.org ; mbabbar@sdpi.org

In order to control the population and to attain both social and economic development, it is crucial that both short-term and long-term national planning and policy formulation be done in the light of the increase in population each year to build on human resource and social and physical infrastructure. Connectivity of this order is a pre-condition to population management and control, coupled with the overall development of the country. The current population policy claims that overpopulation and high fertility rate in Pakistan has increased poverty by retarding economic growth and skewing the distribution of income against the poor.

However, some social scientists and researchers have questioned this hypothesis and argue, with merit and logic, that it is the increasing poverty, lack of education and civic amenities that justifies a poor persons' rationale of having a large number of children as social and economic security. In the given socio-cultural context, in the absence of the provision of the basic enmities for the majority of the populous, which the state, under its constitutional obligations, has to provide, the Population and Environment Communication Center, of the SDPI, organized a 2-day conference, "Population and the future: What lies ahead?", to discuss the nexus between population, environment and development and the impact of population growth on these aspects in the years to come.

Numerous academicians, scholars, civil society activists, politicians and government functionaries were invited to present their views on the many aspects which encompass the "population phenomenon", such as health, education, employment and livelihoods, agriculture, food security and water. Thereby setting the stage for a lively dialogue among the participants to develop a consensus on the issue of an "unchecked" population growth and its impact on the national resources and how to effectively address the issue. Finally, the speakers and participants alike were asked to submit their policy recommendations, which were then presented at the concluding session of the conference.

Dr Jennifer Bennett gave the conference its direction, when, during her introductory address, she argued that in countries like Pakistan, with high population growth rates, top priority must be given to socio-political, as well as, economic development, which should be pursued vigorously at the national level. She further claimed that the phrase "overpopulation" had become the scapegoat for all economic failures. Without doubt over population is and will be a problem, but to say that population per se is responsible for the rise in poverty and retardation of economic growth is unacceptable. Dr. Bennett argued that over population is not the cause of poverty, but instead, it is poverty which is the cause of over population. According to her, if the socio-economic status of the poor is ameliorated, the problem of over population will gradually take care of itself. She emphasized that people make nations and without people the existence of a nation is meaningless. The development activities pursued by any nation must be pro-people and if development policies do not ensure the socio-economic welfare of all its people, then such development is redundant. This can be brought about by the change in the mindset of the policy makers and ruling elite of the country - which of course includes the clergy and military.

Appreciating the theme of the conference by calling it engaging, vast and provocative, Dr. Olivier Brasseur, Country Representative, UNFPA, in his keynote address, read by Ms. Shahida Fazil, Assistant CR, UNFPA, said that at the present population growth rate of 2.1, Pakistan is adding approximately 3 million people annually, which means adding the population of cities of Faisalabad and Multan. He cautioned the audience that rapidly growing population had increased the pressure on the natural recourses and per capita water availability had declined, from 5,300 cubic meters in 1951, to 1200 cubic meters in 2003. He pointed out that, notwithstanding the government celebrating world population day, each year on 11 July, the statements and policies made on these occasions are rarely translated into the action.

Emphasizing this very same point, Dr Mutawakkil Kazi, Chief Secretary Sindh, in his address, claimed that political, social and economic isolation of one country, from the rest of the world, is no longer feasible, nor is it possible. Therefore, as a developing nation, Pakistan has to keep up with times. He was of the view that to cross from a 'third world' status to 'first world', Pakistan needs modernization in technology. Conceding to the fact that the gap between rich and poor is widening, he suggested that as no one can address the issue alone. To achieve this, partnerships between government line departments, the private sector and civil society organization have to be established, nurtured and encouraged through a cordial environment, which will lead to the sustained "pro-people" development. He agreed that despite experiencing the largest period of economic growth, Pakistan had failed to deliver the benefits to its people - a reflection of poor planning and inadequate implementative procedures.

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, of LEAD Pakistan, presented a different viewpoint to the "population problem" when he argued that not population growth, but consumption patterns are the real cause of environmental degradation and exhaustion of the natural resources. Population is not the problem, but an unhealthy, un-housed, uneducated and unskilled population is, created by the serious flaws and cracks in the system, where the poor are becoming poorer and the rich, richer. Dilating on the point, he claimed that poverty was the direct result of the monopolization of available resources; waste of human and natural capital, corruption, lack of freedom of speech and expression, injustice and abuse of law, poor administration, mismanagement and bad governance. He argued that, in an agrarian society, the net advantage of having children starts appearing within five years, as a child at that age starts helping his/her parents with the household chores. He suggested that the only way to achieve a better, cleaner environment and a reduction in population growth is to invest in education and to ensure health for all, which, of course, requires political will and commitment.

Expanding on this point, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, MNA, while addressing the conference participants, stated that in the days to come, the economic and social issues would gain dominance in politics. He admitted that the state had abdicated its role for role human development and the time had come to pay for the uplift of the marginalized and poor. However, political parties cannot become oblivious of issues, like health and education, when they come to power, which they advocate when in opposition. Shah Mehmood argued that defense expenditures are not debated in parliament, but questioned why such a huge army is needed when it processed the nuclear deterrence! Do we need to remain hostile with India at the cost of investing in human security? He was of the view that relations with India need to be normalized and supported the dominant view of the conference that socio-economic insecurity leads to population growth. He agreed with the fact that the poor regard an additional child as a contributing hand and not as another mouth to feed, cloth and educate.

After the opening plenary discussion, Mr. Shahab Khawaja, Additional Secretary, Ministry of Population Welfare, chaired the first session of paper presentations, where Ms Kausar S Khan, of the Aga Khan University and Ms. Shahida Fazal of UNFPA, read their papers on "Population paradigm: alternative to failed leadership" and "Health: are we giving rise to a morbid population", respectively.

Ms. Kausar, in her presentation, proposed that the link between reproductive health and population is significant, and that, as a nation, we should ponder on how to formulate policies, which translate concerns into action. Her study reflected the obvious fact that women are at a great risk of dying when pregnant, nonetheless, they are the ones who bear the brunt of a high population growth rate. She claimed that over 75% of maternal deaths are because of emergency obstetrics conditions, which could be avoided with investment in women health, in general, and reproductive health, in particular. She argued that society has failed to implement a system where the outcome is fair, transparent and truly in the best interest of the nation. When we fail to deliver vulnerable women from their plight and agony, we fail the population paradigm! We have failed to help women during their greatest health risk, when pregnant, and the high Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) in Pakistan is a testimony to this fact.

Elucidating on this point, Ms. Shahida Fazil, of the UNFPA, in her presentation stated that the MMR is considered to be one of the most sensitive indicators of women's health and of quality and accessibility of health services available to women. In Pakistan, according to community-based studies the MMR is alarmingly high, ranging between 350-700 deaths per 100,000 live births - a reflection of the difficulty in attaining reliable data on this matter. The highest MMR figures have been reported from some of the least developed rural areas of Pakistan, such as Khuzdar and Loralai, in Balochistan (690 and 610, respectively). Infant Mortality Rate is also very high, one of the highest in the world, 85 for every 1,000 live births - and most of these deaths to caused by preventative diseases. Diarrhea is the foremost illness responsible for the death of among children under 5 years of age, where the mortality ratio is even higher (103 per 1,000 live births). She cited the example of Sri Lanka, where despite the low per capita income, they have a better health cover and care than Pakistan. Ms. Fazil explained that in the federal budget, the total allocation for health and population sector has been no more than 0.7% of the country's GDP, which needs to be revised to 2% of the GDP in order to cater for the growing population.

The discussant Dr. Ali M. Mir, of the Population Council, commenting on the papers, stated that investing in reproductive health and gender empowerment must be the top priority. People should be given correct information and better advocated to understand the underlying issues, related to population and health and be given the sense of responsibility to ensure a longer, healthier and more fulfilling life.

In his concluding remarks Mr. Shahab Khwaja hoped that the issues raised during this conference, in general, and this session, in particular, would be incorporated in the policy recommendations and placed before policy makers for better formulation and effective implementation.

The post lunch session on the first day was chaired by noted parliamentarian Senator Raza Rabbani. During this session, Dr. AR Kemal (PIDE) and Dr. Mushtaq A. Khan (CRPRID) presented their papers on "Increasing population and economic development" and "Analyzing the path to poverty/environmental degradation", respectively.

Dr. A.R. Kemal, in his presentation, stated that the revenue sharing formula between different provinces of Pakistan is partially responsible for population growth, as it is based on population size. Therefore, there is a likely tendency that smaller provinces will over-enumerate themselves during a census, or encourage population growth incentives and programs.

Dr. Mushtaq A. Khan, elaborately presented the status of poverty in the South Asia region, stating that this region has the largest number of poor, culminating some 0.5 billion, which extrapolates to approximately one third of total poor in the world reside in this region. In Pakistan, poverty has doubled over that last 15 years. Today it stands at 32% of the total population living below absolute poverty line, defined as those earning less than US$1 per day. He agreed with Ms Shahida Fazil's figures on MMR, which he described as being unthinkable for any society living in the 21st Century. Dr. Khan went on to elucidate that about 40 per cent of the children, under 5 years of age, are malnourished and that 8 million women in the reproductive age group are anemic. At least 6 million children between ages of 5 to 9 are out of school, while only 63 percent of population has access to water, whose safety level is undetermined.

While discussing these presentations, Mr. Irfan Mufti, of SAP-Pakistan, stated that both presenters had painted a rather frightening and horrific picture of the socio-economic, development and environmental degradation in Pakistan. He argued that it was high time that the government and civil society become pro-active, rather than just reactive, and advocated dealing with the scenario more aggressively, with sound planning, backed with realistic budgetary allocations. He claimed that the present government had increased its defense spending in the budget by Rs 27 million, in the interest of national security, which was contrary to the way the nations planners claimed. Mr. Mufti declared that national security is meaningless and until and unless investment in human security comes first.

The day-2 morning session was chaired by eminent economist Dr. Akmal Hussain (PPAF). During this session papers by Ms. Shaheen Attiq-ur-Rehman (BUNYAD) and Dr. Masood Qazi (SPDC) were read.

In her paper on "Can we educate the increasing population: and what education?", Ms. Shaheen emphasized the significance of educating women, stressing upon the fact that female education can not only bring about the required change in our society, but also give women the independence and freedom to become self-sufficient. Ms. Attiq-ur-Rahman highlighted the huge gender gap prevalent in our society today, which needs to be addressed. Efforts need to be made at the district levels to narrow this gap and improve the literacy rate. She went on to explain that, despite there being more girls' schools than boys in Punjab, the enrollment rate in these schools is very low and lowest in the middle and secondary schools, which reflects our cultural and traditional custom of marry off girls at very young age (15 - 19 years). Ms Shaheen suggested that one way to combat this was to encourage parents to send their children to schools at a very young age, between 3 - 5 years, as numerous studies have shown that if a child is placed in school at this early age, there is a greater chance that he or she will stay there for a longer period. Studies also show that the more years girls and young women spend at schools, colleges and universities, the more likely they are to produce less children, thereby directly affecting the fertility rate and reducing the population growth rate. The speaker viewed education as a fundamental right of every citizen and important for the development of a nation. She suggested having a regulatory system to ensure the presence of teachers in schools, as most of the government schools have teachers on paper but very few have none present in them. Ms. Shaheen also suggested that the nazims and councilors have to be convinced of the importance of education and made to advocate and implement such plans in their respective areas.

The second paper "Sustaining employment and livelihoods: how can we manage?", was in fact prepared by Dr. Kaiser Bengali, but as he was unable to attend the conference, had asked his colleague Dr. Masood Qazi, to present the paper instead. Dr. Qazi, in his presentation, explained that unemployment is one of the critical factors that determines poverty and at 64%, Pakistan has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world. He argued that as a consequence of this, poverty has reached 38%, which again is higher than most South Asian countries. He claimed that only economic growth is insufficient to reduce poverty and that other factors, such as fair income distributional policies, employment and housing, equity and equality for all must be implemented to reduce poverty and hence effectively tackle population growth. For sustained economic growth poverty and unemployment must be treated as a single issue and, that in order to deal effectively with these problems, people must be empowered and given the opportunity to become self-sufficient. .

Dr. Asad Sayed of Collective for social science research, the discussant of this session, in his remarks agreed that fertility rates decline with improvement in quality education. Therefore, educating a girl child can have a radical effect on the population growth rate. He emphasized that both economic growth and equitable redistribution of the resources are important in alleviating poverty. He blamed the government for breaking the promises it made in terms of economic recovery, as things have deteriorated over the stipulated period. During these years, while the public sector's role has decreased, the role of private sector, as was promised by our economic managers, has not increased. He accused the government of hiding the truth that a deficit does exist in order to ensure that there is no cut in the defense budget, while the same is not true for other sectors whose shares are cut at the slightest indication of a downward slide in economy.
Summarizing the session, Dr. Akmal Hussain remarked on the overwhelming evidence that larger family sizes are more prone to poverty than small families.

The day's second session was chaired by Brigadier (Rtd.) Shaukat Qadir. During this session papers by Ms. Najma Sadeque (Shirkat Gah, Karachi) and Mr. Khalid Hussain (Development Vision) were presented.

Ms. Sadeque, who spoke on "Agriculture and food security: can we feed them all?', equated national security with food security. She claimed that if people are not properly fed, then how could they be expected to defend their land. Another argument is equally valid in that if food becomes scarce, or the food security of a nation is threatened, then such nations may be coerced to rage war on its neighbor in the pretext that military conquest may result in acquisition of land and waterways, which in turn may solve their food problems. She went on to explain that if government policies are not to change, the food dependency will automatically increase thereby worsening the food security situation. Ms. Najma argued that traditional farming methods had served humanity for ten of thousands of years, as it is founded on the simple value of respecting and living in symbiotic harmony with nature. However, farming reliant on the chemical fertilizers, introduced in 20th Century, exploits the land and renders it barren, after persistent use, within a few years. She dilated on the point that the biodiversity of Pakistan is gradually and systematically being destroyed by the introduction of corporate farming so that the rich and powerful may impose their monopoly over global food supplies. There is enough food, in the world, to feed twice as many people today - the issue, she argued, is that of monopolization by the greedy rich and their multinationals, who use "food" as bait to wheeled their influence in the political circles.

In his presentation on "Politics of water: will there be enough for survival?', Khalid Hussain stated that of the total water resources available in Pakistan, 97 per cent is used for agricultural purposes, while only 3 per cent is used for drinking and domestic purposes. He agreed that there is a reduction in per capita water availability. However, as a huge chunk of it is used for irrigation, it will not directly affect the population. What will and does affect a population is the quality of water that is supplied. In Pakistan, all urban centers and most rural areas are supplied with contaminated waters, which act as reservoirs for numerous water-borne diseases. Such aspects should be actively addressed and remedies implemented. Here we are in the 21st Century, yet in Pakistan the infrastructure for an underground sanitation system and affective water treatment facilities are yet to be universally found. Those that do exist are either inadequate to cope with the growing population, or are logger-jammed with solid waste and having burst their banks only add more contaminants to the already polluted waters.

Mr. Hussain said that in the country, water rights are being re-appropriated with the nudging of World Bank and other multilateral donor agencies. Khalid adamantly opposed the construction of mega water projects like Thal Canal, labeling the project as being thoroughly corrupt, designed by men in uniform to favor their ilk at the cost of the environment and the share and rights of the smaller provinces.

Muzzafar Mehmood Qureshi, former Secretary Ministry of Population Welfare, who was the discussant of the session, commented that the media had failed to take notice of change in population size and its impact of the environment and development. He explained that by coining the slogan of modernization, our traditional farming methods were being annihilated and the small farmers - who account for nearly 80 per cent - are slowly, but surely, being pushed towards bankruptcy and 'absolute' poverty.

The concluding session of this conference was designed to tease out the crux of the presentations and ensuing discussions, and, with the help of the participants, chalk out policy recommendations to effectively address the population "phenomenon". Dr. A.R. Kemal chaired the session and Mr. Onder Yucer, Country Representative UNDP, was the chief guest. Among the numerous invitees present at the concluding session, Senator Sana Baloch, of Balochistan, was also present.

Dr. Kemal initiated the debate by presenting the salient features of the collation of recommendations, as suggested by the participants and organizers of this conference. He stressed the need to undertake an integrated approach towards the problem of poverty and population and agreed that none of the issues pertaining to population, or poverty, should be handled in isolation, since they are interrelated.

The policy recommendations highlighted the need for such an integrated approach as essential to ensure their implementation. The participants were in agreement that all political parties should unite to guarantee that basic education be declared a fundamental constitutional right by promulgating it as compulsory and equal for all, with increased budgeting allocation to the health and education sectors (2 - 4 per cent of the GDP). The recommendations also included placing human security ahead of territorial security and to invest in public goods and reform the science and research sectors to be market driven to ensure employment and delivery. Above all, policy formulation and execution must be made transparent by involving all the stakeholders from the very start (PC1 stage) and inviting civil society representatives at the planning stage. In order to secure the dignity and rights of all and sustained socio-economic development, it is necessary to cultivate an integrated policy at all levels of political decision making by implementing the framework of the Agenda 21 of the UNCED. The conference participants suggested that land reforms are a critical need, with particular focus on equality of public land distribution to both men and women and corresponding change in the inheritance laws and the abolishment of all discriminatory laws, such as the Hudood Ordinance and Blasphemy laws.
Mr. Onder Yucer, while giving his closing remarks, said that Pakistan requires a comprehensive population policy that is consistent with development and social planning. With the addition of 3 million people each year, Pakistan faces immense challenges and must adjust itself in sectors as diverse as education, health, water, environment and food security. Mr. Onder remarked that good governance and a participatory approach to development are key to avert the often-apocalyptic scenario, depicted by researchers and scholars, with respect to population growth and its impact on environment and development. In order to eradicate poverty, it is essential to invest in human resource development and social infrastructure.

Mr. Yucer elaborated the UN's role in working closely with the Pakistani government to ensure changes in the social sectors, specifically population, keeping in view the cultural and traditional values of the populous, and the emerging needs of a vastly increasing youth population of the country. He enlightened the participants that UNDP's role in alleviating poverty, particularly targeting the women, youth and rural poor.

Remarking on the policy recommendations, addressing the issue of population growth in Pakistan, Senator Sana Baloch, from Balochistan, commented that there is an inherent fault at the policy level in Pakistan which has resulted in a dominant view, in sparsely populated provinces, that a large population size is the source of power, rather than a problem. He pointed out that unlike the prevalent view in the conference, he did not see the population growth as a challenge, or problem, in Balochistan, as in the present political structure population size is the sole criteria for resource allocation, share in jobs and representation in Parliament. He claimed that this fact acts as a motivating force for smaller provinces to increase their population to match the most populace, and therefore the most powerful, province of Punjab. He commented that there is an inherent fault at the policy level in Pakistan, which indirectly promotes population growth.

Dr. Jennifer Bennett then brought the conference to a close, by thanking all speakers, guests and participants for their active participation and zealous fervor that without doubt contributed to the success of the conference. She concluded by further emphasizing the need for collaborative efforts among all concerned institutions and organizations to ensure social development and economic prosperity for all Pakistanis.

Conference Policy Recommendations

Following are the details of the recommendations conceived by the PECC conference and placed in 6 broad categories.

Population

· Population programs should be compelled to create sustained partnerships with line institutes, ministries etc.
· Population policies must encourage corporate/ private sector and other stakeholders (NGOs)
· When formulating the PC-1 ensure that all line departments, as well as civil society groups, are actively involved.
· Proper utilization and training of media personnel to help them better understand the nexus between population, environment and development in order to better promote the population issues.

Health

· Health must be made the focal point of all social development programs.
· Hurdles, misconceptions and stereotypes must be removed and incentives created for doctors to work in rural areas - obligatory assurance.
· Reduce unmet need for family planning through better access to RH services and improved quality of care.

Education

· Make primary education free and compulsory for all.
· State must take responsibilities for providing free and quality education for all and to do this at least 4% of the GDP be allocated for education.
· Hurdles, misconceptions and stereotypes must be removed and incentives created for teachers to work in rural areas - obligatory assurance.
· Educate the clergy on the importance of RH, STD/RTI (HIV/AIDS, HBV etc.) and environment related issues to disseminate this information to all members of their congregation.
· Change the textbook curricula, existing now, to one which would provide skilled and literate individuals, promoting environment and reproductive health education at the school, collegiate and university levels.

Gender/Human Rights

· Gender disparity must be reduced in education to ensure the young girls and women continue with their education till at least graduation.
· Policies must emphasize on quality education leading to gender empowerment.
· Place human security ahead of territorial security and invest in public goods and reform science sector delivery.
· Develop an integrated policy for sustainable development and securing of human rights at all levels of political decision making by implementing the framework of the Agenda 21 of the UNCED conference.
· Despite donor funded inputs to the PRSP preparation, there is still invisibility of gender issues in the current draft of PRSP document, particularly in the economic sector of agriculture, industry, trade, taxation, banking, governance and macro economic framework. This need to readdress and civil society inputs need to be urgently incorporated.

Politics

· Enhance budgetary allocation for social development. Legislation must be placed for debate on military expenditures; to help in the argument to promote social equity, equality and justice.
· All political parties should be united in ensuring basic education be a fundamental constitutional right; made compulsory and equal for all. Political parties must debate on the social issues with their own parties and make it part of their manifesto.
· Union Council should be the basic administrative unit for independent development of EFA/HFA/Sanitation/family planning.
· A dramatic change in the priorities of national budget in favor of social spending will pave the way for dramatic social development.
· Make policy formulation and execution transparent.
· Address the political decision makers on all levels to take the necessary steps towards pro-people land reforms; access to education; encouragement and promotion of young girls and adult women in rural and urban area towards inclusion in decision making about issues that effect their livelihoods at the village level and expand it to the district, tehsil, division and provincial levels.
· Redefine, at the parliamentary level, the merits of budgetary allocations of resources based on income share, financial contribution, developmental status, area and population size should all be considered and legislation to this effect passed to ensure fair and equitable economic growth and development throughout.
· Removal of all discriminatory laws, such as Hudood Ordinance, Blasphemy laws, through legislation, following a consensus through debate among all parties concerned, including the civil society groups.

Development

· Economic development must ensure the reduction of poverty on equal level.
· To reduce poverty increase minimum wage to at least Rupees seven thousand per month (Rs. 7,000) for both private and public sector workers.
· Population / poverty issues cannot be taken in isolation - economic, social, cultural factors to be taken into account.
· Strengthen role of NGOs/CBOs, to build a consolidation of the civil society to help push for judicial reforms.
· Based on extensive knowledge about the interrelationships between poverty, population, socio-cultural traditions and environment degradations; define strategy to convey this knowledge to people effected by the consequences through education on all levels.
· Population policy makers need to recognize the linkages of population with gender, education and environment and accordingly mover from a narrow vertical population planning project mode to a broad horizontal program of poverty eradication, focusing particularly on addressing imbalances, educational disparities and quality issues, and environmental degradation. GOP needs to address major gaps in gender disparities, especially in agriculture and rural socio economic development indicators. There is critical need for including women's invisible and unpaid labor in agriculture, livestock, domestic food security as contribution to the national exchequer.
· Land reforms are a critical need, with particular focus on equality of public land distribution to both men and women and corresponding change in the inheritance laws.
· Promote traditional, organic farming in agriculture it provide food security, rather than corporate farming and inorganic fertilizers.

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